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Castaneda, G (2011)

La ley de Benford y su aplicabilidad en el análisis forense de resultados electorales [Benford’s Law and its Applicability in the Forensic Analysis of Electoral Results]

Política y gobierno 18(2), pp. 297-329.

ISSN/ISBN: Not available at this time. DOI: Not available at this time.



Abstract: This article analyses the viability of Benford’s Law in the forensic study of the detection of electoral frauds. According to this law, the initial digits of a set of numbers follow a logarithmic distribution as long as the data has not been disturbed. Implementa- tion of this law in socioeconomic data —or in other types of data— depends on the pres- ence of a two-fold randomized process: events of a distribution, and probability distribu- tions selected from a reduced group. Through agent-based models, it is demonstrated that this law does not offer a robust test to distinguish between clean elections and elec- tions that have been manipulated. In the model-in-question, partisan preferences are modified by means of social transmission and the parameters are calibrated with data from the Mexican 2006 elections.


Bibtex:
@article{article, author = {Castaneda, Gonzalo}, year = {2011}, month = {12}, pages = {297--329}, title = {La ley de Benford y su aplicabilidad en el análisis forense de resultados electorales}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, journal = {Política y gobierno} }


Reference Type: Journal Article

Subject Area(s): Voting Fraud