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Haynes, AH (2012)

Detecting Fraud in Bankrupt Municipalities Using Benford's Law

Scripps Senior Theses. Paper 42,; last accessed November 12, 2014.

ISSN/ISBN: Not available at this time. DOI: Not available at this time.

Abstract: This thesis explores if fraud or mismanagement in municipal governments can be diagnosed or detected in advance of their bankruptcies by financial statement analysis using Benfordís Law. Benfordís Law essentially states that the distribution of first digits from real world observations would not be uniform, but instead follow a trend where numbers with lower first digits (1, 2...) occur more frequently than those with higher first digits (...8,9). If a data set does not follow Benfordís distribution, it is likely that the data has been manipulated. This widespread phenomenon has been used as a tool to detect anomalies in data sets. The annual financial statements of Jefferson County, Vallejo City, and Orange County were analyzed. All the data sets showed overall nonconformity to Benfordís Law and therefore indicated that there was the possibility of fraud occurring. I find that Benfordís Law, had it been applied in real time to those financial statements, would have been able to detect that something was amiss. That would have been very useful because each of those jurisdictions subsequently went bankrupt. This paper demonstrates that Benfordís Law may in some cases be useful as an early indicator to detect the possibility of fraud in municipal governmentsí financial data.

@mastersThesis{, AUTHOR = {Allyn H. Haynes}, TITLE = {Detecting Fraud in Bankrupt Municipalities Using Benford's Law}, SCHOOL = {Scripps College}, YEAR = {2012}, TYPE = {Senior Thesis}, URL = { 42}, }

Reference Type: Thesis

Subject Area(s): Economics