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Deckert, J, Myagkov, M and Ordeshook, PC (2010)

The Irrelevance of Benford's Law for Detecting Fraud in Elections

CALTECH working paper 9.

ISSN/ISBN: Not available at this time. DOI: Not available at this time.



Abstract: With increasing frequency websites appear to argue that the application of Benfordís Law Ė a prediction as to the observed frequency of numbers in the first and second digits of official election returns -- establishes fraud in this or that election. However, looking at data from Ohio, Massachusetts and Ukraine, as well as data artificially generated by a series of simulations, we argue here that Benfordís Law is essentially useless as a forensic indicator of fraud. Deviations from either the first or second digit version of that law can arise regardless of whether an election is free and fair. In fact, fraud can move data in the direction of satisfying that law and thereby occasion wholly erroneous conclusions.


Bibtex:
Not available at this time.


Reference Type: Preprint

Subject Area(s): Voting Fraud